WINTER HAS BEEN FOUND!!!, RAIN STATS, GHIDORA, EARTH’S RUMBLINGS
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PEEPS,
Well we have found winter – Finally!! And you are saying have you lost your mind?? No not like this man in this classic movie:
Tuesday morning there is light wintry mix and snow on the docket for NW NJ and parts of NNJ as well as LHV and HV. Could make the morning commute slick. And no this is not me blowing up this storm system here – Mary L told you walking out of da Highlands Friday that Tuesday we could see some snow and more up by you but the 13-15th is the time frame to watch out for.
Mike Mugs at PSU will see an accumulation in Happy Valley – sad to say he went back to school yesterday – break seemed to short as they always do. Thanks to his buddy Lucas for driving him back out. Best of luck in your second semester my son!! Watch the ice rink freeze now LOL!
Tuesday morning: Light coating for some down to Zungoli land Northern Passaic County but about up to a heavy coating to 1/4″ in the Ruburb hinterland of PB, Marino ^2 lands
Then we change to rain for us in NE NJ – wth is new right!
RAIN STATS
Oh and speaking of rain and wetness here are some stats:
Wettest and Driest Years and Months at Central Park (1869 to Present)
Last Updated: 7/8/18
Wettest Years (Inches) Driest Years (Inches)
1 80.56 1983 1 26.09 1965
2 72.81 2011 2 32.99 1964
ADD 2018 RIGHT HERE AT #3!!!!!!!!!!!
3 67.03 1972 3 33.72 1910
4 65.11 1989 4 33.85 1935
5 61.67 2007 5 34.38 1963
6 61.21 1975 6 35.29 1970
7 60.92 1990 7 35.37 1885,1895
8 59.89 2006 8 35.58 1954
9 58.42 2003 9 35.60 1892
10 58.32 1903 10 35.65 2001
191 DAYS OUT OF 365 WE HAD RECORDED PRECIPITATION – RAIN, SNOW, SLEET, GRAUPEL – 232 CLOUDY DAYS.
34 out of 52 weekends we had precipitation either on Saturday, Sunday or both
Information pulled from https://www.weather.gov
Peeps the main culprit is this:
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Daily Sun: 06 Jan 19
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Departing sunspot AR2732 is a member of decaying Solar Cycle 24 and poses no threat for strong solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI
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Sunspot number: 13
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 06 Jan 2019
Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2019 total: 0 days (0%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
LOW SOLAR!!!!!
Low solar or no solar as I’ve been harping on this past 2017-18 time frame is causing more cloudy days and will so even more in the future so get your Vitamin D supplement or else …………….
GHIDORA
The split has happened peeps and now we wait until ~17 of this month to feel this three headed beasts affects – if CNN or Fox News or even the local TV mets try to take credit for alerting the public I may lose my poop since I wrote about this much before they even had a clue (they really never do on LR forecasting they are sheeple as my son Chives says!). The split has occurred and when this arctic cold air propagates (SAT word there LOL – means mixes down from the high Stratosphere to our level of weather) we may flip hard!!
WHO WANT THIS THREE HEADED BEAST????
The three dark blue circles are the positions a snow and cold lover would wish for!
The zonal winds have reversed the past week to easterly from westerly which will enhance the cold air to mix down and not allow this to re consolidate:
The strat. vortex is currently weaker than all other years in the ERA interim record!!! The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): -8.8 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -5.1 m/s 1985
EARTH’S RUMBLINGS
We have had many volcanoes erupt this past week, like the French protests against Macron – hmm we have heard nada about any of this unless there is catastrophic damage that can be sensationalized:
This is about 9 miles a VEI 3 level eruption:
Anak Krakatau Erupts AGAIN — Ash Ejected 15 km (50,000 feet) a.s.l. https://t.co/K4rPcG78ks
— Electroverse (@Electroversenet) January 3, 2019
Deep M6.8 Earthquake Hits 89km W of Tarauaca, Brazil https://t.co/reTdODc4JT
— Electroverse (@Electroversenet) January 6, 2019
Shiveluch Volcano Volcanic Ash Advisory: POSS VA EMISSIONS CONTINUING OBS VA DTG: 05/1120Z to 18000 ft (5500 m)
Explosive activity continues. Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Tokyo warned about a volcanic ash plume that rose up to estimated 18000 ft (5500 m) altitude or flight level 180 and is moving at 25 kts in NW direction
These VEI (Volcanic Explosion Index) level 2 and 3 volcanic eruptions will have some effects on our weather depending upon how much sulfur and particle materials were released into the atmosphere by March or during March. 18000ft = 3.5 miles
For my Snow Princess and Queen I leave you with this – the European Model 46 day snowfall forecast – JUST FOR EYE CANDY NOT TO BE TAKEN AS GOSPEL! If we get the arctic air and the storm track stays the course it COULD be!!!
BACK TO WINTER IS FOUND:
Italy has found winter in a big way – Pompei – my Abruzzi region folk are in disbelief that snow has fallen and stuck even to their beaches – GW right LOL!!
Snow falls on Pompeii and Vesuvius — Vast Swathes of Italy Under a White Blanket https://t.co/gOQACVJvs8
— Electroverse (@Electroversenet) January 5, 2019
We are monitoring a possible storm in the 13th – 15th time frame – may not be the big kahuna (12″ plus) at this time but could be a moderate snowstorm 3/4-6″ type.
Anyway an arctic front will pass through here Thursday and we get rolling from there Friday Morning:
Monday low Temps WOWZA:
Next 10 days snowfall:
Time frame most active is Jan 13th till – March 10thish
The warm 30 day period we have experienced is due to again an anomalous pattern that is 15K miles away that drove our pattern – the Indian Ocean tropics. Now is has calmed down its convection we have a 3-5 day lag period which brings us to the 10/11 time frame for winter to come back.
This is all an evolution peeps and once we lock this pattern in by the 17th ish then we rock for about a 40 day period.
Updates to come.
Al Q
