Way to kick off!! Nor Trifecta?
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Peeps,
Way to kick off!!….FALL
Here we go peeps! And ready, set, go…………………….BOOOOOOOOOOMMM!
A significant low pressure system will impact the northeast Wednesday into Thursday with gusty winds and rain. The system may reach 970mb near Boston! Scattered power outages and flooding are very possible with this system as rainfall could reach up to 4" for some locations. pic.twitter.com/umQDHTwrhe
— USAwx (@USAwx) October 15, 2019
Guidance is in good overall agreement with major cyclogenesis off the Mid Atlantic coast late Wednesday afternoon into the night. This is in response to an amplifying upper trough emerging from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley states, phasing with a southern branch frontal wave and subtropical moisture. Where there is some uncertainty, is with the timing and how explosive the initial development is with the low. The 12Z NAM continues to be slower and deeper (about 10 mb by 06Z Thu) with the resultant low. However, the trend is certainly more in line with the other operational models, and not as deep as previous runs. This is key for couple of reasons, one for the timing of the heavy rain, and the other to determine whether the strong easterly flow will coincide with the time of high tide. The latter of which raises the issue for potential coastal flooding. See Coastal Flood section below for additional details. As for the rainfall, the system is loaded with strong upper dynamics (negatively tilted upper trough and coupling upper jet exit and entrance regions) and strong thermal forcing, with the potential for several inches of rainfall. The heaviest rain looks to be north and west of the low track, which will encompass most of the forecast area. Rainfall amounts at this time look average 2 to 3 inches, with the potential for higher amounts in banded rain. The one saving grace is that antecedent conditions have been dry and main stem rivers will likely be able to handle these amounts. Gridded FFG values for NE NJ are 2 to 2 1/2 inches for 6 hours. Much of this rain occurs in a 6 to 9 hour window from late afternoon/early evening to just after midnight. Thus, a flash flood watch is in effect for NE NJ. Elsewhere, there is a lower probability of flash flooding for urban, poor drainage, and low lying areas. Ahead of the low, a period of E/SE winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph are likely along the coast Wednesday afternoon/evening. Then in the wake of low pressure, W/NW winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts to 40 mph are expected late Wednesday night.
Winds
Coastal Flooding – Moderate – 2 high tides
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
morning/afternoon we feel the effects
A Nor Trifecta?
Ask and you shall receive – next weekendish 10-24 to the 26th time frame
After this storm on its backside we get cold, below freezing cold – warning has been given about this.
Speaking of cold – look at this:
OVER THE PAST 7 DAYS, THE U.S. BROKE A STAGGERING 2,159 LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS VS JUST THE 213 FOR MAX
Even NOAA's blatant AGW bias can't hide the intensifying #GrandSolarMinimum.
Also, this image contains fewer than HALF of the new record lows set:https://t.co/y6mTqhxmvT
— Electroverse (@Electroversenet) October 15, 2019
Have a great night.
Updates to come.
Al Q
