Warmth, Winter’s End Game, PV Nadia Style?, Solar, Extreme Wx
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Peeps,
So much time has passed since my last writings on 1/20 which was my father’s 87 bday if he was still here with us in the flesh. He sadly is not being called home by God in 1987, a mere 37 years ago as I was a senior in highschool readying for my prom 2 days later. I am a much better person for this event and it was ‘The Climb” for sure for me and my family, affected us greatly. BUT great people were around us and some not so and we made it over that mountain. No onto the weather!!
Warmth like Spring due to the rapid intense warming of the Pacific Ocean off SE Aussie Land aka Australia. Say what? Yes, it caused a cacophony of pattern changing events that NO ONE saw coming and gave us not a January Thaw of about a week at most but a complete pattern flip for 10-12 days, 15 for some like South Jersey. The pattern is poised to return to winter and we could, could have a 30-40 day stretch IF it comes together. Time will tell.
2-3PM manana 60* -in NNJ/NYC Metro WOW!! Mid 50’s LI and S CT.
Okay Heat Miser had his moment on my blog!
Monday night late into Tuesday Storm
Lots of positive model runs today but the energy doesn’t get fully sampled until midnight model runs to noon model runs at the worst tomorrow. BUT it does look pretty amazing the 3 of the global models have a snowstorm for NNJ, NYC Metro up into the interior. That a crush job right there for NNJ, SE CT HV and NEPA
Details are still 3 days away which is an eternity for a storm. If it were tomorrow or Sunday that would be locked in but the storm is there and any 25 -50-mile shift can mean Coating to 2″ to 6-12″. Yes, that’s how intricate this storm is. These storms are never that easy.
Storm in a nutshell – Atlantic City we need you!!
Everybody root for #1. If not – YOU’RE BANNED!!
Here are the maps:
Timing: Late Early AM Tuesday through Tuesday late afternoon
IMPACTS: Moderate to High – both rush hours
Region: CNJ through HV and NE PA
As I said to my wx club yesterday …. We just have to get snow on the ground then things will feedback off it and help adjust the intricacies in the pattern!
Winter’s End Game
The models are showing what could be winter for us for about 30 days starting Monday and running through mid to later March. It needs to come together but I do think we may a 3rd arctic outbreak of cold and multiple storm threats of about 4-5 when all is said and done.
PV Nadia Style
IF the Polar Vortex splits and come to fruition as modelled then it could be worse ala March 2018 cold n snow period that lasted ~35-40 days. If it does and sets up shop as modeled Presidents week then Spring gets delayed bigly…..again!!
See it dipping below the 0 degree line – that means a reversal of winds which means a weakening and splitting possibly of the Polar Vortex. Good signs if it happens
March in blue = colder than normal and spring delayed
Solar
The Sun has been very active and we dodged 2-3 monster bullets from flares and CME ejections. IF anyone of these hit our planet life would have greatly altered where our electrified society would take a big hit. We would be knocked back to the 1800’s and previous time frame IF one of these flares fires up directed at Earth. Yeah yeah yeah keep saying you’ve been saying this for a while and I have, when it happens you won’t be able to contact me unless you walk to my house to say hey “AL Q you were right”. So, in the meantime live life, enjoy, and be grateful!!
MAJOR X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: The sun produced a major X3.4-class solar flare today, Feb. 9th (1314 UT). The source was located just behind the sun’s southwestern limb. That means the partially eclipsed flare was even bigger than its nominal X3.4 rating. Earth just dodged a bullet.
Extreme Wx
The weather is getting and will CONTINUE to get more extreme each and every storm and month. It’s not you me or CO2 that .04% trace gas of our atmosphere that they have brainwashed many and our kids about. It’s all bs. Why is the earth storm and jet structure so extreme lately? The Sun and the magnetic reversal cycle of our poles we are presently in. When will it hit the crescendo? Probably another five to ten years and then we’ll be in that mode for about 30-50 years from what all research is pointing to. It is all about the Earth and Solar Cycles.
Lastly the hurricane preseason forecasts are not looking good for shore peeps again. The Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico Region, and you guessed it East Coast up to Newfoundland have to watch this year due to a dying El Nino with a fast developing La Nina and above average warm water in the “Hot”Lantic Ocean. Time will tell but this is how it looks NOW. It can change for the better, less or worse more!!
Basin Forecast
Names Storms 25-30
Hurricanes 14-16
Major Hurricanes 6-8
Total ACE 200-240
Note that this comes out to an average ACE per storm of 8.
Impact Forecast
Named storm Impacts 10-14
Hurricane Impacts 5-8
Major Hurricane Impacts 3-5
The forecast map has no areas receiving below-average tropical cyclone activity. The highest areas are expected to be in a cone of 2-3 times average, aimed at our coast, which includes the Caribbean and Bahamas.
YIKES
Be well, keep the faith in the Good Lord and he will show you the way if you open yourself up and allow him to along with his two counterparts – his son and spirit!! Can’t beat that trio….EVER!! Embrace them all.
Updates to come.
Al Q
