Thaw, Two for Tuesday, February – Snow and Cold?
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Peeps,
Been pretty quiet from my perspective but things are starting to heat up a bit. Here are the topics of talk in the weather world.
THAW
Well the thaw is upon us but not like we have seen the past two winter which were abominations of what we call winter temperature wise, crazy that snowfall was above normal. It started this past Saturday and the past couple of days through tomorrow will feel winter and then this weekend we warm up again or thaw and then next week we return to winter. The real return to winter comes the next month. As I wrote in blog earlier this month that the thaw would be a few above normal days and a 2-3 below normal days and this period of time would be about 10 days in length. Some on the wx boards I belong to have argued that the warmth would win. Ixna on that peeps, we are in a cold regime winter right now with CANADA being what we call VODKA cold and all we need is the dam to crack and that puppy bursts!
The pink and purples is low-level dense arctic air!!
Coming soon,
Two for Tuesday
We have a very complex set up to a degree for Tuesday next week that could result in anywhere from 0″ to 12″ depending on where the Norlun trough or inverted trough sets up. There will be a coastal storm after the Saturday night into Sunday rain.
This is a thread the needle type of situation but if it does we can see something like this Thunderstorm type trough set up but snow.
Here is the German Model – a deeper stronger coastal storm that would give us a healthy dose of snow
DON’T TAKE THIS SNOW MAP ABOVE VERBATIM!!!!!!!!!!
This would be Monday night through Tuesday if it were to come fruition.
February – Snow and Cold?
Well folks, February is known and statistically our snowiest month. That should put a smile on most snow lovers faces. Will this year produce as such. I think it will and possibly in a big way starting around the 8th of the month. Firs the dam of cold air will break through Canada and seep its way into the northeast. We have an abundance ion tropical activity say what this is winter! Yes but our pattern is affected but something called the MJO pulse along the Pacific equatorial region from the Indian Ocean through to Peru, South America has a profound control on our weather. We have this working for us and along with this we have an East based Nina pattern, Low Solar and a Polar Vortex that looks to want to elongate and set up on our side of the globe along with what is called an E QBO of winds up on the stratosphere heights of our atmosphere. You follow all of this? I thought you would ………………not so in a nutshell it looks to be cold and snowy – music to SNOW QUEENS EARS!!! I swear and I warned you SQ that if I hear another belly achin I will block you from my updates and blogs!
February 2-3 – could be a rain to snow event as the cold air presses in or it could be a snow paste job as we call it where it is a wet heavy snow.
Feb 7-9th – cold be a coastal storm.
Feb 12-24th – could multiple snow storms – minor like a few inches to major like half-foot to a foot possibly plus.
This pattern if it slows in the Pacific Equatorial region could make it last here through till about Mid March and be likened to February 2015 – that was a bitter cold and snowy month!
From my Winter Outlook back in November
January
N – BN range for 1 to -1 degrees (going to nail this but maybe to high)
Snow – Normal to Slightly Above Normal (8-12”) (7″ so far this January)
January 17-19 – BIG STORM POTENTIAL ( ARGHHHH It did not come to fruition but the potential was there!!)
February
Normal temps
Snow – Normal (8-12”)
Feb 3-4 Time Frame – East Coast Snowstorm Potential – could be the end
of winter soon after this possibly
We may flip to spring mid-February if the pattern relaxes BUT if it doesn’t
then I think we flip after the first 1/3 of March
The latter it shall be from the last sentence.
So if you thought winter was over you are wrong, get ready cause it is going to be a fun and possibly wild (in a great way) time period from early Feb through earlyish March.
Updates to come.
Al Q
