SUPPRESSION, PATTERN FLIP, VOLCANO’s ERUPTING, PLEASE!!!
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Folks,
As I wrote the last week in my post that we would see a pattern flip by the Jan 10th time frame – well what do you think?? We went from a zonal 40’s pattern to a more winter like with temps hovering around freezing, lows in the teens and wind chills in the single digits. BUT the truest of pattern flip is about tome come but first:
SUPPRESSION = Depression
IF this TPV lobe -tropospheric Polar Vortex Lobe small piece – did not drop so far south OR the storm as previously forecasted came in here Sunday night or early AM Monday peeps we’d have a moderate snowstorm here. Instead the storm has moved up in time and thus the press of this TPV is hanging up in Maine not allowing this storm to climb the coast as it wants to do. So DC through Baltimore will see 3-6/7″ and SNJ Ocean County South 2-4″. What might NYC to Trenton see?? A heavy coating to 1″. NNJ may see some flakes to maybe and I mean maybe a light coating if this can slow down and jog North.
The one aspect I am looking at is the coastal low that will take over – if its delayed or is stronger and tucks into the coast it will allow this TPV to slide east and give the storm some room to move more North. IF and that is a big IF happens then maybe NYC can eek out a solid 1″.
EDIT: AND AS I WRITE IT IS TICKING NORTH!!!!!! TPV is retracting and starting to move out – could be a surprise from NYC Metro for a 1″ and CNJ fro about 2″ if this keeps jogging North!!
PATTERN FLIP 45/60 day 30 day cycle
Okay so we have had a taste of the pattern flip. I have noticed from my own and others research that weather patterns follow a cycle of 45-60 days a 30 day break then back to this 45-60 day pattern. Will this be the case for us going into the heart of winter? I think so.
Oct 15th we basically flipped to a colder pattern and that lasted until about Dec 10thish – was there a moderation period in early November for about 7-8 days yes. Then we went into a colder pattern until early December hence the 60 day cycle. From that point in early Dec to Jan 10thish we have had a moderation cycle period of above normal temperatures. Now we are heading back into this cycle – count out 60 days and this bring us to Mid March – Feb only has 28 days LOL!
This is just an appetizer for the BIGLY pattern flip that will come the next weekend. There is a “rubber band” effect in weather that Dr. Joel Meyers has shown time and time again especially in the winter. Where there is warmth when it should be cold that in due time the cold will snap back into that region.
So with this we go into a very winter like pattern that will feedback on itself and as they say BUCKLE UP for this ride!!
Told my buddy Guerci that about 18th Jan we see a major flip and the PV ride into town – he maybe delayed by a couple of days but when he does we go into deeeepppp winter!!
VOLCANO’s ERUPTING
Peeps why there is no attention to this is perplexing as well as the turmoil overseas in Britain and France, Germany etc over the EU, immigration etc.
WE have had 5 moderate volcano explosions these last 3 weeks sending ask and sulfur gases high into the atmosphere like 9 miles!! This will have an affect down he road for our weather some how someway.
YET ANOTHER POWERFUL ERUPTION AT MANAM VOLCANO — ASH FIRED 50,000 FEET A.S.L.
A new high-altitude eruption took place at Papua New Guinea’s Manam volcano at 04:25 UTC on Jan 11. The Aviation Colour Code remains red.
According to the Darwin VAAC, the eruption produced a column of ash rising up to 15.2 km (50,000 feet) above sea level. The volcanic ash was observed on satellite imagery and confirmed by ground reports.
Image-comparison of Anak-Krakatau before and after collapse, showing the major changes to the volcanic Island. First photo captured 5th August and second photo taken by @EarthUncutTV today. 1/3 #AnakKrakatau pic.twitter.com/uXcU3cGydt
— Øystein Lund Andersen (@OysteinLAnderse) January 11, 2019
PLEASE!!! MLK Special??
A strong signal for a storm (🔵) next weekend in the eastern U.S., as shown by ECMWF-EPS!
Blocking (🔴) over the North Atlantic supports the evolution toward a wintry pattern for both eastern North America and Europe ❄️ pic.twitter.com/pO95IJl8HG
— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) January 12, 2019
This has great potential with the pattern changing.
Updates to come.
Al Q
storm
