Summer Lovin’, Solar & Eclipse, H’canessssssss, Winter 2017-18
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Peeps,
Summer Lovin’! Is it over??
Well, one LR forecast company says it’s over. JB and others say not so fast that the Bermuda high and warm waters of the Atlantic will keep summer going into mid to late September. It looks like as I said before in my posts that mid-August which we are just about in we will see humid and summery condition return as the BH flexes its muscle.
Here is what the forecast is for teh rest of teh month – Summer does ant look to be over with this map in his area – not scorching but not over
Will there be another heat wave or two? The definition for you inquiring about what defines a heat wave is temperatures at or over 90* for three straight days as daytime highs. So far we have had the following for our area in terms of 90* days:
The breakdown from the great one himself SACRUS from the USAWx board:
PHL – Philly: 21 (April: 0; May: 3 ; June: 6 ; Jul: 11 ; Aug: 1; Sep: )
EWR: 18 (April: 0; May: 3 ; June: 5 ; Jul: 9; Aug: 1 ; Sep: )
TTN: 14 (Apr: 0 ; May: 3 ; Jun: 4; Jul: 6; Aug: 1 ; Sep: )
LGA: 15 (April: 0; May: 3 ; June: 3 ; Jul: 8 ; Aug: 1 ; Sep: )
ACY: 16 (April: 0; May: 3 ; June: 3 ; Jul: 9; Aug: 1 ; Sep: )
TEB: 20 (April: 0; May: 3 ; June: 5; Jul: 10 ; Aug: 2 ; Sep: )
NYC: 12 (April: 0; May: 3 ; June: 3; Jul: 5 ; Aug: 1; Sep: )
JFK: 8 (April: 0; May: 1 ; June: 2 ; Jul: 5 Aug: ; Sep: )
ISP: 8 (April: 0; May : ; June: 2 ; Jul: 6; Aug: ; Sep: )
New Bnswk: 21 (April: 0; May: 3; June: 8 ; Jul: 9; Aug: 1 ; Sep: )
89 Degree days
ACY: 3
ISP: 4
New Brunswick: 4
EWR: 2
TEB: 6
TTN: 7
PHL: 6
LGA: 3
JFK: 1
Solar + Eclipse
Solar folks is waning in a big way overall. We have had 12 inactive days out of the last 13. Hmmmm so what does this mean? The sun will still come up and set just like it has done for the last billions of years, man can’t do anything about this but enjoy this beautiful, magnificent ball of Fusion that we so desperately need and would like to replicate. It means that Seismic Activity will be on the rise as it has this last year (precursor to low solar is Earth shakes (quakes) – no can’t buy this at a DQ or Starbucks, and volcanoes/volcanic activity. It will mean a cooling of the oceans temperatures in time and of the land masses which should equate into cooler temps on the planet overall as time progresses.
Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2017 total: 56 days (25%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%) – very snowy and cold 8-9 weeks of winter
2009 total: 260 days (71%)- very snowy and cold 8-9 weeks of winter
Eclipse – It is coming and we up here in the NYC Metro/NNJ areas will see about 70% of the eclipse Next time around AL Q will be one of the oldest humans alive pushing 106 LOL!!
Here is the site for your perusing: https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/4518
H’cane update x tres (#3)
Two posts ago writing
“As I said in my last update that we would be in a lull to the end of July and into the first week of August well a major what we call Kelvin Wave treped across the Pacific and into the Atlantic. Once it flies on through the shear will be low and the African Sahara dust will be lessened. The MDR (Main Development Region) is above normal water temperature wise and there is train of system marching across the African continent waiting and I mean just waiting to get to this region and dance into a cyclone. Will all of them do so – no way Jose! – but there is the possibility of a majority so what the h are you saying here? This in conjunction with a trough over the Midwest will allow some of these storm to come pay of a visit to the eastern seaboard peeps. So things will start to get active around August 5thish right on through the 20thish at this time.”
Update last post
Today being the 3rd of the month and we have two feature we are watching – one in the Gulf of Mehico and one off the African coast that should develop into a trop cyclone in the next 48 hours. The African Dust is tempered; dry air is north or has lifted out of the MDR (Main Development Region) – runs from the African coast to the east of the Caribbean Sea. Some maps for your reading pleasure and leisure.
Those travelling into the Caribbean Region next week need to have a plan ready just in case and trust a weather source not the HMWB – “Hey Mon Weather Bureau” where the forecast is always rainbows and warmth like the ganja they have morning, noon and night!!! (LOL)
Update Tres (#3) – this post
Well we had the turtle developed into a hcane , who you ask? Him 
Franklin – as he spun up and hit the Yucatan as a trop storm and then redeveloped into a hcane as he hit the western side of the Gulf of Mehico in Mehico and now is become a hcane again – 3x a charm in the Eastern Pacific. Slow and steady wins the race right?!
99L as it was called ran into some issues trying to develop in the MDR (Main Development Region) with dry air and took longer to develop into a trop cyclone than originally thought. BUT it has become Gert – who the H names these storms and who names a child Gert? Short for Gertrude – reminds me an old woman from the Germanic Tribe days no?? It has formed into a trop storm and on its way to a hcane but will re curve out to sea in what we call a “fish” storm.
Gert is ramping up to a hcane as we speak – she can reach CAT 2 status in my opinion – good thing she is a “fish”storm
Jochs and Quinn (A – if he still surfed like he did back in the day in California) will over the swells, waves this shall produce. Hand ten dudes!!
The African wave train and tropics are heating up with more in the pipeline. Three more possible by the end of the 20th! A problem (or exciting to me I know I have an issue) is we have a big High Pressure height field in SE Canada along with a trough in the Central Plains that combined with the Bermuda High flexing its muscle could spell or does spell issues for a landfall along the East Coast and into the Gulf of Mehico.
Fun times ahead. The next one, Harvey (Wallbanger? Anyone? Frye? Remember this drink from the late 60’s and 70’s? will become a trop cyclone by next weekendish. This one in LR projections shows it heading into the Carribean. Time will tell.
Linguine anyone?? We call these a spaghetti loop
Winter 2017-18 Pre pre pre preliminary ideas
Come on peeps you and me both know we live for this stuff and season right? If not well I may have to ban you – MUHAHAHAHA!
From what we are seeing NOW an dof course this will change we have an Easterly QBO wind in the atmosphere which equals higher snowfall chances and cold in the Northeast, a Negative AAM (Atmospheric Angular Momentum*), an interesting sea surface temperature in the equatorial pacific ocean which drives our weather here, a Woolly Mammoth in Greenland – well not really but the snow and ice depths are off the charts for this summer, a warm Atlantic,, low solar which equals to more High latitude blocking. So what the H does this all mean now: Well from the great Joe Bastardi here is what he has to say interpreting all this information – we start off early this winter like Thanksgiving and roar through Dec and Jan and then moderate to flip to spring come early/mid-February. Here are his charts from his expertise and what the EURO LR outlook is saying. Only wish it were NOV instead of Mid Aug!!
A Neutral Warm ENSO – isnt this chart pretty?? Look at the thick yellow line that means water in the Pacific Equator are warmer than normal and are projected to be.
Greenland Snow depth – MOMMA MIA WOOF WOOOF for the summer !!
BELOW = BOOOOOOM – ONLY IF IT CAN VERIFY!!
Precip – Above Normal
Updates will be sure to come.
Have a great day.
Al Q
AAM * Explanation- Low AAM states are often associated with increased trough passages over the West and Southeastern U.S. ridge development. While the models are indicating increased ridge development over FL in through the Caribbean, there will likely be a strong upper-level cold trough anchored over the Northeast in response to a high-latitude blocked pattern over the North Pole and Greenland. = COLD and SNOWY!
