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Peeps,

Models played with us again showing what could be a 3-6″ plus bang the last couple of days but have since retracted and now we will see snowfall amounts around a coating to maybe an inch or two. This has cut way back from the 4-7″ maps I posted Thurs. night. Heck the Irish needed a little luck for their BIG Pearl River parade manana so be it!!

 

This I do not see happening but let me post for my inner snow weenie!

Something needs to drastically happen fro this snowfall to occur!

Son of Stella ain’t no Rocky………………….

As for Stella, she will be ranked on the NESIS scale as a level  3 storm (Major) out if a scale of 1-5. Five being the worst – extreme. Here is this scale:

CATEGORY	NESIS VALUE	DESCRIPTION
1	1—2.499	Notable
2	2.5—3.99	Significant
3	4—5.99	Major
4	6—9.99	Crippling
5	10.0+	Extreme

It was modelled to be a five but pulled a fast one overnight and shifted its course 50 miles west of the projected path. Even a 25 mile shift would have given NYC about a foot of snow. Projected path or a 25 -50 mile shift east of its projected path and MOMMA MIA we’d still be diggin out!! That is how close this was.

Here is the snowfall amounts she laid down:

A sharp cut off in NE NJ to NYC.

Here is the satellite view of the NE snow cover – extremely impressive as we head into Spring on Monday – yes that is right the Equinox peeps – more sunlight with each passing day – we made it but not quite yet!!

 

The week ahead we will see temps get up to the low 40’s Mon and Tuesday with nighttime lows in teh 20’s so we have black ice at night and in the mornings- be careful with this peeps. End of next week will be another cold arctic blast Thursday and Friday with a chance of another storm – 50/50 at this point for snow/rain.

HOLY COLD FOR SPRING!! Night time lows this is………

Update to come.

 

Al Q

References:

• Kocin, P. J. and L. W. Uccellini, 2004: A Snowfall Impact Scale Derived From Northeast Storm Snowfall Distributions. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 177-194