Rocktober, Fall, Seismic Activity NONE, Heat Transfer
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Peeps,
Been a few days (14 to be exact!!)but have no fear Al Q is still here!!!!! HAHAHA like that rhyme??
Seismic Activity
Since we are in the realm of heading to what is termed a solar minimum (when the solar flares and Coronal Holes are abating causing the irradiance of solar geomagnetic rays bombarding planet Earth or as I like to say spaceship Earth – think about this for a few seconds we are floating as a massive rock in space!) there is a direct correlation to seismic activity increasing. An interesting for some (like me) but also a scary thought overall. So what does this all mean? Great questions. It means that we WILL see more earthquakes but they are the predecessors to the big Kahuna’s – VOLCANOES!! The high latitude volcanoes those above 30* longitude starting becoming active last year as solar started its decline in activity. Oh and don’t get the wrong idea – this isn’t fake news LOL- the sun is NOT going away and burning itself out – it will still shine on the planet for millions of more years well we hope that long!
Back to the discussion here, the BIG KUHUNA’s are the tropical volcanoes peeps the ones that formed all those islands in the Pacific and even the mid latitude ones like Jelly Stone (Yellowstone) and Vesuvius Etna etc. I have been following this and wrote about this last year if some of you recall. This could be a YUUUGGGGE game changer for us humans for years to come. How? Well we have three possibly 4 very active volcanoes and one super-duper volcano that COULD and I mean could send some areas back in time.
Here is my post three days ago on a thread I started on the NJ Strong Weather Forum
Seismic Activity – Volcanos
by amugs on Thu Sep 28, 2017 1:38 pm
If you have not heard there are three volcanos that are ready to blow their stacks.
This is all due to low solar activity and low irradiance from the sun on planet earth.
This has happened many times throughout history and even recently in the last century that caused global cooling by .2-.3*C (1960′ and 70’s)
From our own Isotherm (my boy Tom S!)
“Low solar –> increased galactic cosmic rays –> interplanetary magnetic field modulation of earthquake frequency –> volcanism. ”
Mt. Agung – evacuations of the entire island of 10,0000. Over 500 tremors have been happening a day since Monday. In German I know but this chart show the tremors – this place is a Ke$ha (ABOUT TO BLOW!!!)
MANARO ON VANUATU – they have evacuated the island of 7,000 by boat and air there. Located in the South Pacific
This last could be the mother of volcanoes – and holy poop if this goes off.
CAMPI FLEGREL in the homeland of Italia, they are nervous cause this is a super volcano that last time it blew was 40,000 years ago. I believe from what historians and scientist believe caused a volcanic winter over Europe that is said to have killed off the last of Neanderthal. (I thought I saw a few over my life time in various places LOL!) It is reported that there have been active fissures and tremors and may be connected to the EQ that they experienced that last few years in Italy. This would rival Vesuvius from all accounts and we know from history what that bad boy did! MOMMA MIA!!
MANARO ON VANUATU – well guess what he did today – KABOOM he blew and now they are sending – the Aussies – gotta luv the down under peeps – are sending massive flotilla of boats to evacuate the 11K on the island as I write.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/01/vanuatu-volcano-erupts-11000-prepare-to-evacuate.html
NONE
None = for the first time in 45 days there is no tropical activity in the Hotlantic. The African Wave train is over till next year! As I explained to me peers from the top notch one and only Ivory Halled Educational Institution we call Camp Highlands (come on now this school kicks the proverbial butt of ALL HS in the state!) at lunch Friday that we had a concomitant of variables at play this summer as NOAA and Al Q pointed out in their tropical hcane forecasts, they upped theirs at the end of July – I Stayed the course as a good aye aye cappy always does! We have a La Nina base state in the Pacific which causes the westerlies to subside and they travel across the equatorial pacific into the tropical Atlantic.
One, this is VERRRRYYY important because it creates shear at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere not allowing these tropical waves as they are called that come off the African continent to mature. They literally blow the tops off these forming storms.
Two, we have had a low hcane seasons the last 6 years in the Atlantic allowing for a thermocline of very heat latent waters – means very deep warm bathtub water to form which fuels these storms as we have seen over the last few weeks. Waters that were 90*F – this is like throwing gasoline on a fire.
Three, we have had higher pressures over the North American continent and lower pressures below over the tropics and Caribbean thus allowing these storms to form as well.
Four, a big Bermuda High and a North Atlantic block that has prevented these storms from going OTS at the lower geographical areas like the SE – this is why I said that we had to watch for EC landfalls and we came close 2x – a couple of hundred miles or even 100 miles is a VERRYYYYY close call for this area – Maria, Jose, one more?? Probably not since the westerly winds should protects us and steer this away.
Five, the Saharan Dust was low that blew off the African Continent this year.
Six, from the La Nina we had low shear which as explained above allowed for the storm to mature.
We still have to watch out for the Caribbean region for more tropical development in the next 10-15 days since the pressures are lower there and the waters are still boiling.
These hcanes have upwelled the waters bringing colder water to the surface which would impede the development.
Nutshell/cliff notes – we were ripe for hcanes this year and we are going to be for these next few years – YIKKESSS!!!
Puerto Rico
Here is a video from this sick man (joking here) Josh Mogerman who chases Hcanes and hunkers down in the projected eye path.
Conditions in tropical Pacific tilted toward La Niña, a colder than normal ocean temperatures. History of huge Atlantic hurricane seasons.
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) October 1, 2017
Okay peeps is it a really awful sitch down there…………… hands down – they got hit with a CAT 4 and a CAT 5 Hcane in the span of 9 days – the whole infrastructure has been compromised – no electricity, communications, natural gas gasoline, and water. The resources as talking to a friend in the ACOE (Army Corps of Engineers he is the top civilian) that we have been stretched between Haa vy, Irmagedon and Maria (Lisa Yneka Susana Acindina) Sanchez= LOL. IF Jose had hit the mid-Atlantic as some early projections were showing then he said it would be worse – imagine that. What the issues are that are not being reported is that the roads and the port was badly damaged and destroyed in some areas. So logistically we have 10K troops and professionals on the ground working with four naval ships two cargo one hospital and one amphibious. We also have 2 ships helping out in the US Virgin Islands with about 1K peeps. Remember Sandy here? I sure as heck do and we had over 5K just in NJ working and securing and it was an absolute mess. Some areas are still flooded along the coastline and remember how long it took the corps to plug the gaping hole in the breach by Ortley and Mantoloking?? A month plus. My point being the resources are stretched and we have plenty of willing and able and smart folks there, it is just the enormity of this event that is hindering this operation. Heck I was out with electricity for 10 days after Sandy and some were even longer around me just from 2 fallen trees!! Don’t mess with Big Mamma peeps she will ALWAYS win in the end.
FALL/ROCKTOBER
Feels great last few nights and days. See heat energy transfer write up below. We will warm up his week and will be on the warm side for Rocktober’s first half – a typical LA Nina look for us. October is important for snow growth in the high country – Canada – and starts to set the pattern for winter. Some are saying we stay warm well (a degree or two above normal) through early Dec and then it flips to winter. There are conflicting indicators at this point and the oceans are cooling in the Pacific and Indian. Time will tell but the second half of the month of Rocktober maybe more normal with cold fronts sweeping through bring rains and windy conditions.
HEAT ENGINE TRANSFER
Why did we go from late September cool days and nights to start September to Miami Vice weather teh last 10 days??
All of the massive and deep atmospheric storms – the hurricanes have been heat energy transfers. They have pulled the heat and humidity from the Gulf o’ Mehico and Hotlantic and transported via the fluid dynamics in the atmosphere our way – 1000 miles is really nothing at 18K feet for air to move around in. It is like the teenage girl redoing here room because she feels like it or my wife the magnificent artist changing the colors of our rooms!!
This is gone and the warmth they (TV Mets and alike) are putting the fear of OH NO not the heat miser where I will be sweating and uncomfortable is not it. It will be dry warmth low 70’s to maybe 80 by Friday with cool to chilly nights as the nights are getting longer. I’ll take this over the last 10 days!
Okay ta ta for now.
Enjoy your day.
Al Q
