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Peeps,

 

Its been a month since I last wrote. Yes we have had Mr. Frost and Freeze come to town for a wide majority of the listening area a few times. Yes we had a warm Indian Summer spell in late Rocktober through today. The winds are a changing peeps and we have a game changing potent storm that will bring us much needed rain and even some white gold….. SAY WHAT??? Yes, lets look at the maps:

STart Time; Rain tomorrow night around 9-10PM

Chnages over to snow for the NNJ hills around Thursday afternoon through night into Friday AMish

Britt,  WE ARE, PB and Sara M maybe looking at an accumulating 1-2″

Guerci Land – 3-5″

 

From HeeHaw on the NJWX Board: Great explanation

Common thread on the models. Storm (blue circle over east region will get stuck under a block  purple circles), stack vertically and possibly loop around. How far south do closed mid levels get prob determines where the best forcing sets up. Hard to nail that down but doesn’t seem that block is going to allow this too far northward.

The block has been showing stronger and further south.

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EURO rain precipitation is calling for 2-3″

National Weather Service says:

STAE WIDE VIEW

Windy Conditions as you near NYC

 

SNOWFALL – they are so wah wah its incredible

 

GFS – 850MB LP on LI (black circle) – prime spot for NNJ and LHV, EPA. Not as good for LI, CT or NYC. We need this in a month and after for winter but 100-150 miles east. Heaviest precipitation is to the west of this low and the cold air filters in on the back side.

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GFS does the FUJIWARA!!! Where one storm rotates around another! This is a rarity and an absolutely insane weather phenomena!!!

Purple is snow -woo  hoo!!

Possible accumulations from a slushy coating to a few inches in the mountaisn of NWNJ = Sussex, Passsaic, Morris

EURO SAYS:

TURKEY DAY =WET??

PATTERN CHANGE=WINTER

 

A very interesting – and potentially favorable pattern for cold/snow – setting up as we head towards the end of this month and December. A strong -WPO (West Pacific ridge) and stretched polar vortex towards North America combine to offer up a supply of cold air. Suspect of how much cold can bleed into the Eastern US given tropical forcing, but this should offer up shots of cold and a stormy pattern for the Central US.

 

Polar Vortext is stretched = cold air to settle into Central and North East regions:

Map has potential for snow Thanksgiving thorugh the 1st week of December

Red Circles:

1. -WPO/-EPO couplet will allow for cold air to be discharged from the siberian, arctic region into the mainland – centrala dn east coast
2. Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations block up storms from heading North and shunts them East and North East besides slowing them down and locking them in
3. Two part – a trough over the east coast = stormy and below normal temperatures and two over the Atlantic = 50/50 storm black that allso locks in teh cold air and slows up the storms

 

Dec 3-5thish

 

Have a great night peeps.

Keep the faith in the Good Lord, turn whatever is bothering you, worried about over to him and he will guide you and take care of things. Not on your timleine but his, be patient and the rewards will be great!!

Updates to come.

Al Q