NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 348 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016 CTZ005-006-NJZ002-004-103-NYZ067>070-270900- NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-WESTERN PASSAIC- EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND- NORTHERN WESTCHESTER- 348 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2016

…FIRST WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT…

THE FIRST WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS ORANGE AND ROCKLAND COUNTIES OF NEW YORK…AND PASSAIC WESTERN BERGEN COUNTIES OF NEW JERSEY. TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING…DURING THE RUSH HOUR…THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE LIKELY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND SLEET. THEN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THE SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN BY NOON. TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A TRACE TO 1 1/2 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. IF TRAVELING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BE PREPARED FOR THE FIRST WINTRY WEATHER OF THE SEASON AND EXERCISE CAUTION.

Now this all depends on how fast the precipitation moves in.
IF it moves in faster we can see a nice thick coating in the NNJ lower elevation lands.
IF it is slower then we see some pingers (sleet) with wet snow and rain.
Higher elevation lands such as Mahwah mountain, Ringwood, West Milford, and Sparta region could see a good solid inch to two. This is just the start of what I feel is going to be a tiresome winter for me and you with many updates on cold and snow.

GFS says HAYLLOO!! Not all will stick but

AND THE WE RAIN AND GET A DECENT AMOUNT ABOUT  1 – 1.5″

Warmth

Then after this weekend and Halloween we warm up for or Indian Summer where temps may reach the 70 mark next week and we will have the possible tale of two halves to our November.

TUES

At the end of this warmth there may be a big storm as the transition in the atmosphere back to fall happens. Could it be a coastal? Inland runner? Great Lakes Cutter? Anyone’s guess at this stage but the signals are there. Rain, Snow or a mix is all possible.

Polar Vortex

As I explained to my Weather Club of high school students, this could be a major wildcard for this upcoming winter. Not to get to technical but it has been forecasted to split by the end of next week. It usually takes about 2 weeks for this to have effects on out weather here in the Mid Atlantic/Northeast. Time check: Oct 26 – End of next Week about Nov. 3 about two weeks brings us to mid-November WHICH is when I said in my last post I see the flip to the winter type of weather. Joe bastardy is calling for November 10^th – he and I are genius if this occurs – HAHAHAHAHA!!

Okay so if it does split then this would occur – cold polar air will then be able to drain into the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and North East areas from the High Pressure that will sit over the region just west of Hudson Bay or a bit further west.

Updates to come and be careful those of you driving on RT 287, 23 Thruway and I 84.

Al Q