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JOSE – WESTWARD HO!! MARIA beats Lee to the 1-2 punch!
By Al Mugno
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Peeps,Peeps,
WHICH WAY JOSE? Westward Ho?
Didn’t I say the next 36 hours will tell – well we are about 24 hours into this time frame.
Time for ya’ll shore folks to get ready, yes prepare please. His position is further west than plotted which means he will bring his effects to the Jersey shores, NYC metro area and LI.
What effects are we talking here – tropical force winds and gusts, moderate to major coastal flooding with a new moon and beach erosion along with 2” plus of rain in squall like bands that if they “set up over an area” can induce flash flooding.
What will happen is when Jose start his journey up here he will transition from a Hcane to what is called a hybrid or extra tropical system ala Sandy (no he will not be Sandy but the same meteorological physics will be taking place). What this does is expand his wind field and rain field.
I have been saying I don’t believe the eastward component to this and had a concern for the shores. If he speeds up, then he’ll come much more west as the remnants of Irma in the 18K level of the atmosphere will tug on him and bring him closer to the coast. If this scenario occurs, then we have major issues all around. If he slows down, then a high pressure system to the North in Canada will help turn him NE. Tiem will tell.
Timing: Tuesday AM ish from South to North
We have to wait and see what the mid-afternoon and midnight (I ain’t staying up for this sorry) model runs say. A jog 50 -75 more miles in either direction is not out of the question – again closer and watch out, more east and meh.
Euro Map/NAM/GFS
WIND GUSTS – better hope this is wrong or else power outages for the area!
EURO
EURO STORM
NAM – remnants of Irma hangin’ out waiting for Jose
NAM WINDS – Identical to Euro
GFS
NOW FOR THE CRAZY – UKIE – it has been steadfast on this path, don’t see it happening (crashing into NJ ) but the track up the coast yes!
OH SNIKEEEEES
12Z EURO JUST CRUSHES THE COASTLINE AND INLAND (ABOUT 30 MILES) WINDS TROP FORCE WITH HCANE ALONG THE BEACHES JESUS GET READY IT IS A 20 HOUR PLUS DURATION TYPE OF STORM ON THE EURO. IF IT MISSES THE TROUGH HE STALLS OFF LI COAST !!! THIS WOULD BE TERRIBLE!
MARIA
It is going to be a fight between these two of who hits the Leeward Islands again and causes havoc in the Caribbean. The GFS and EURO once again paint an ominous picture for a US landfall anywhere from Fla up to NYC. All I can say is that pray for these poor folks who were ravaged by Irma then got a whiplash from Jose can you see and now they may be dealing with these two.
Maria the Sangrai partner to Jose will win this one and beat Lee to the punch literally as she moves towards the leeward islands you know those islands that got destroyed by Irma? Yup those. What a shame and bad scenario for these folks. She may intensify into a CAT 2 or 3 hcane but let’s hope the dry air in front of her slows this down. Long Range projections has her going through these islands and into Haiti, Puerto Rica and then towards the US east coast. She may even tango with Jose and they may perform a Fujiwara dance. WHAT? It is a metrological phenomenon were two low pressure systems act or tug on each other and spin each other around. See what would be a hoot is if they dance and Jose spins or is sling shot back towards us. Anyway we have to watch for her on the coming week. I will be on it.
Lee well he is not early to the party and is lately an afterthought!!
Updates to come.
AL Q
By Al Mugno
