Ice/Mix N&W Ruburbs, Big Chill Part 2, Midweek Snowstorm Potential, Thaw?
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Peeps,
Ice/Mix
It has not panned out as once foretasted for the 13-15th time frame as the models were showing last week BUT it has trended colder and if the storm came in here Saturday/Sunday as once forecasted then we would have had ourselves a nice plowable snowstorm with the cold air that is charging like Sherman through the South! So with that said it can be a serious ice situation for the NW Ruburbs from West Milford on West into LHV of Orange and Sullivan Counties and EPA with .10 to .30 of ice accretion.
Dark Blue line is the 32* line YIKES!!
Most of this snow accumulation from EPA to NNJ is sleet or a mix or freezing rain sleet and rain or snow
Advisory Flies!!
Sussex-Warren-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Reading, Allentown,
Bethlehem, and Easton
348 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018
…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY…
* WHAT…Freezing rain expected and maybe a little sleet. The ice
will result in difficult travel conditions. Total ice
accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch are expected.
* WHERE…Portions of northwest New Jersey and east central
Pennsylvania.
* WHEN…From 4 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…temperatures will fall sharply near 50 at
midnight to around 30 at 7 am Saturday with icing developing
rapidly toward daybreak Saturday on gusty north to northwest
winds.
There is potential for wintry precip Saturday with highest chances
N/W of NYC. Some light snow and ice accumulation will be possible.
Faster trends to ending precipitation would allow for drier air
before colder air advects in. But synoptic signals are there with
the trough to the west and lingering moisture in the 800-950 mb
layer. The significant drying above 750mb will convey a lack of ice
nuclei Saturday as well, so there could even be a chance of freezing
drizzle. This all points to more ice with precipitation so
subsequent model trends will be monitored to see if this colder
trend continues and if chances for the wintry precip extend farther
SE along the coastal sections of the region.
There is a colder trend happening folks so be careful Saturday morning even in the suburbs for icy conditions!!
The Big Chill Part 2
The cold air will be coming in and charging hard from the great land of Alberta, Canada. This will NOT be as cold as the last air mass but it will be very cold make no bones about it!! Wind Chills Sunday morning will be from 0 to -10 in the N&W areas and 5 to single digits in the NYC Metro Area.
Enjoy the tropical weather tomorrow cause by this time Saturday night you gonna be in thermals and under the electric blanky!!!
We will not get above freezing till about Friday.
Some Thaw LOL!!!
SUN Morning Low*
Mon Low*
Wed Low*
Thurs Low*
FRI LOW*
Maybe Tuesday we reach Freezing during the day the rest are low 20’s as high temps!!
Midweek Snowstorm Potential
Models are showing what could be a plowable meaning 3″ plus snowstorm around Wednesday next week.
We have the cold air in place and a system that will dive in from Canada and round the base of the trough – like the Kentucky Derby horses when the round the final turn and shoot out to the finish line or as the great Davy Jones calls – and down the stretch they come!! IF we can get this to slow down enough it could be a big storm like an 8″ plus. IF last bomb-genesis storm last Thursday had blocking to slow it down in the slightest it would have been historical – heck we’d still be digging out!!
From this
to this
The storm stalls over us and it would snow for 16 hours plus!! IF this happens which I am not anticipating at this time (famous last words!!)
This is a tasty look this far our from an ensemble run!
THAW???
Well I had said around Jan 15th we’d probably thaw and………………it is being delayed big time like my boy SROC plane ride home from Cali last Thursday. It looks like the thaw is going to be well muted and possibly cancelled (as per model runs today) to a degree where we have 2-3 days of normal temperatures and then a few days of below normal and repeat the cycle through the end of January. This pattern looks to reload the last days of January or early days of February and will make a few weeks run of this? Maybe more? It is hard to tell at this time because we have conflicting variables – MJO pulse that is for warmth phase 4 and maybe 5 (this would be a torch!) but Stratospheric warming that would disrupt and elongate the Polar Vortex like it did in December and early January (very bitter cold). We also have an east based Nina were the waters are colder off Peru than in the middle of the equatorial pacific which usually means colder in the East Coast. So we have no clear-cut signal but one things i do know is that OH CANDADA is frigid and when you have a freezer overhead all you need is something to trigger open the door in the slightest for the cold air to come pouring in why in this season and pattern I will lean toward cold.
The thaw maybe we had today and incoming tomorrow peeps.
Snow Queen will be
with this information that this could be it for warmisists!
Updates to come
Al Q
