Friday Snowstorm
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Peeps,
Well I missed the forecast call with snowfall amounts but not the timing and the freezing rain that was bad.
What happened with the snow you say? The coastal low that was developing caused what we call subsidence of dry sinking air that the storm was pulling into itself as it formed and moved off the cast hence the reason why at 8:30AM we started to snow heavily to moderately before changing over to the dreaded freezing rain. When I got up at 5AM I looked at the window to nothing I was expecting after looking at observations from the DC and Sothern reports. I was in the camp that this would over perform for us but sadly never came to fruition. NO ONE HAD THE SUBSIDENCE in their forecasts, not even the National Weather Service so I chalk that up to a tie. Timing was spot on starting at 9:40 here in Hillsdale and some at 9Pm and other a tad later in LHV and went until about 4 PM.
I firmly believe that schools would have been cancelled if it did not stop snowing at 4AMish on radar until 8:30AM – that’s 4-4.5hrs of what would have been .25-.5″ snowfall rates as was being reported down south. BUT we did the delay which I said was 100% on.
Final Tally – 1.5″ – 2.5″ for most of NNJ
Garde: B
Onto Fridays Storm. This one really had great makings of the big kahuna but as is the course for storms these past 3 winter it never materialized due to something falling short. That could be a storm not moving out fast enough and causing wave spacing issues, which is why and what is happening to this one, the energies do not phase, come together as one cohesive unit and are spread apart like a momma bear and her cubs foraging for food, again this storm, or the Pacific crashes a storm into the west coast causing jet structure issues. See so many finer details have to come together for a big storm to happen so it is truly remarkable when they do and we need to marvel and embrace it when it does occur!!
Storm Generalities
Timing Friday Morning – Late Afternoon
Snow Totals CNJ 2-4″, NNJ, LI, NYC Metro 2-3”, HV 1-2″ SE CT 1-2″
School impacts: At this time not seeing much other than an early dismissal if it times
correctly say starting at 8/9AM and snows through 4-5PM.
Temps in the mid 20’s
Snow ratio’s will be 15:1 to maybe 20:1 range in the arctic air mass.
So if we get .15” of precipitation that is ….3” of snow possibly. Now some can be eaten up by Virga as the atmosphere is so dry it has to moisten up. Why doesn’t this ever happen with rain??
If we get say .20” of precip yes it’s 3.5” if 20:1 its 4”
There is NORLUN trough setting up and if it does someone under that heavy band of snow, like a lake effect band, will puke snow for a few hours. Those lucky bustards may wind up with 4-6”
MAPS:
1PM SNOW – deeper purple is moderate snow
4PM
Temperatures:
SNOWFALL
Updates to come.
AL Q
