February lost?
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Peeps,
I wish I had better news to report but things over this weekend went to pot, poop, ugly and no beuno!!!!!!!!!
I know some of you maybe saying what but you said that we would have a good/great period coming up late February thorough mid March, and that is true and I admit that. One thing NO ONE saw coming was a tropical cyclone coming through the Indian Ocean into the Pacific by Aussie land and then re curving back. So how in Gods name does this effect us? It has a tremendous effect on us since this wave or pulse in the MJO region does all sorts of things in the atmosphere sends a split flow to far west and sticks a big trough over the western USA and a big heat ridge over the eastern USA. people I know will be rejoicing that we will have spring like temps abound for a good period of time with rain – hey don’t shoot this messenger I just interpret and report to my faithful what is coming down the road. Now can we get a snowstorm absolutely it is still winter and we have had 60* one day and a SECS storm the next. Right through mid – March but the timing becomes crucial once after Feb 22nd for the sun angle starts to impede storm accumulations for white gold.
What some don’t get is that it is not just one piece that will make our pattern but many variable when it come to winter and what is happening 10,000 plus miles away has a profound effect on this in both directions – upstream and downstream.
We are in a typical Nina esque pattern with storms running west of us up the Apps spine or into the St Lawrence River Valley.
MJO GEFS
All the convection of LP (storms) stuck West of the Dateline – someone fart in a big way and blow this east for us!!! This needs to move to east of the 180 mark on teh map and continue to 160 – tehre is some but the storms to its west override the eastern storms.
The typhoon re curves (follow the orange then white line below on the map thus sticking the MJO in Phase 7 which promotes a trough in the Western USA and the SE Ridge to have its glory on us EC. It was suppose to move west and into phase 8 then 1 setting up a great 2-3 week period to end winter. As you can see it is not at this time.
AND WE GET THIS ABSURD LOOK!!!!!!!!
50-60’s
Sorry my winter friends but it isn’t looking at that good right now but lets hope for a change somewhere somehow.
I suspect if we get this split of the Polar Vortex as forecast we may be able to see some positive effect at the end of February into mid March but I am not hanging my hopes on this. One thing is for sure is that we will have Negative NAO feature that will block things up – if we had this in Jan and early Feb we’d have about 5 feet of snow by now – yeah not kidding! What can this do well without cold give us lots of rain!!!
Okay enjoy the warmth upcoming this week, may start the clean up if time permits!!
Al Q
