Double H, August Outlook, Tropics, GSM, Nino (weak), Winter
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Peeps,
Heat and humidity & August Outlook= Double H. Folks that is the name of the game for the Dog Days and last month of meteorological summer as I write. The WAR, known and the Western Atlantic Ridge, is set up in a position that has the east coast on its western flank and is pumping the tropical, humid air up the coast. I was in Savannah and Charleston last month and talk about sticky and feeling constantly like a sponge – like this guy
Is there relief from this heat wave? Of course there will be later this week but it shall return.
Oh and T-rex and Tarbosaurus have made many visits to us this summer so far and will more so. Yes College Point in Queens report an EF O tornado last week with winds in 80mph range.
Tropics = Snooze fest for us due to the coming back or on of a Weak Modoki El Nino. When we have an El Nino most of the tropical activity takes place in the Pacific or as my Foundations of Western Civilization Dr. Peter Macaluso would say “Spacific”!
Oh here is Debby (Wah Wah) wandering out in no mans land and will dissipate in the next 48 hours – no threat at all.
BUT we could have in close development that cold result in Tropical Storm maybe Category 1 level hurricane if the conditions are right. One thing is for sure is that with this WAR pressing on the coast it does make one scratch their head about this possibility for the east coast. The waters are abnormally warm up this way but cold as ice in the Main Development Region known as the MDR so nothing will spawn out that way in the Atlantic unlike last year where it was boiling water hence Maria.
Close up compliments of Joe Bastardi – these orangey and burnt red colors would fuel a tropical system if it were to form.
Grand Solar Minimum
This is a huuuge factor in our weather and will be as it shall affect us over the next two decades of time. We are heading into an era/time frame of low to no solar activity. With this we will see more high latitude blocking in our winters resulting in longer cold periods, seismic activity which I have been harping on for a couple of years now with earthquakes and volcanoes become much more explosive/stronger and frequent. No we can’t stop it and we have nothing to do with this natural galactic cycle – say what? Yes, the planets orbital paths from readings this summer – here is a post from 33& Rain weather forum I made two days ago:
“From the charts I have read show the activity we are seeing in seismic activity (volcanoes and eq’s) is growing.
John Casey in his writing and research point out that over the last 3-4 hundreds of years since 1630’s(I know a small sample size over the period of time with solar minimums – Maunder, Dalton) but this is dating back to when Galileo (who I believe is the first to take notice of solar activity) starting collecting and charting such information. There have been 28 VEI 5 or greater such volcanoes in these solar minimum periods from 1650 on. True the chances are slim but I saw slim coming into town the other day looking to take up residence for while LOL!!!
Last week on NJ Strong Weather Forum I wrote:
“This will enhance clouds over the mid to north latitudes as so I have read online and in a book this summer so far. The other very interesting planetary alignment is for the big boys to start to align as they did in other solar minimum stages over the past millennium of research. The big boys = Neptune, Uranus, Jupiter and Saturn. They when aligned cause the gravitational pull on the sun thus elongated its structure which translates to low sun spots and less irradiance plus these alignments cause celestial gravity waves to effect our planet which is new in research but very interesting (Lester). So what is all this information pointing towards??? Great question and remains to be seen – equatorial violent volcanic eruptions not so much above ground but below meaning the oceans especially the pac which could induce a massive amount of sulfur and water vapor to be discharge into the atmosphere, more clouds, effects on jet stream patterns = colder temps and effects on storms and paths possibly. The snow pack over the pole and Greenland will have the albedo effect which should also help with pattern development i.e. blocking and N AO/NAO couplet which could have a feedback loop once it gets going. One thing to note, those sultry hot oppressive days we experience in July due to that HP over Quebec – give us that a degree in winter and we have the cold easily.”
Great article and map of this on this link on Volcanoes:
Sun Update
Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 4 days
2018 total: 125 days (57%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)
Updated 07 Aug 2018
El Nino
Winter Ideas
Compliments of WxBell – fast start to winter with a trough over the east coast – deep blue and massive high latitude blocking
January
February
This says March too – YIKEEEEEES!!!
The Euro Seasonal package and forecast comes out at the end of this week and if I can get my hands on it share it with ya’ll.
Preliminary word is that we have a first true bang bang winter from December through February after a warmish November but wet and cool/colder October.
Time will tell but with low solar happening I can see such a scenario playing out and IF we get a Volcano blowing its lid in a big way then watch out.
Lastly peeps food is going to be a BIG and I mean BIG topic going forward since the weather. Crops around the world are taking a hit and we will feel its impacts as we move forward. You will see in stores about shortages of certain products and costs increasing. The gov’t will do its best but in time (meaning 3-5/10 years) this will become a major topic – feeding this massive earth population.
Have a great day and updates coming forth.
Al Q
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